No, the vaccines never worked all that well against severe Covid

It is the final defense for the Covid vaccines.

Politicians and public health bureaucrats repeat it endlessly: the shots stop severe illness.

Sure, if you’re unlucky they may land you in bed for a day or two. And yes, you’ll still get Covid. But the jabs will keep you from DYING of Covid. We pinky promise!

Vaccine advocates have repeated the mantra since last summer. In July 2021, for example, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy told CNN that 99.5 percent of coronavirus deaths happened in unvaccinated people. Five months later, President Biden infamously said unvaccinated people faced “a winter of severe illness and death” and would overwhelm hospitals.

(Dec. 16, 2021. A lie then, a lie now)


But a peer-reviewed British study covering 9.1 million people and almost 600,000 Covid infections in 2021 shows vaccine advocates badly overstated the effectiveness of the shots even last year, at the peak of their effectiveness.

By mid-2021, fully vaccinated people had a higher risk of being infected with Covid, the study shows. They had only about 65 percent protection against hospitalization and death – after accounting for age, sex, and other risk factors.

Sixty-five percent protection is still better than nothing, of course. But it is far below the claims Murthy and others made – and continue to make.

Further, the period the researchers examined represented the peak of vaccine protection, which declined over time and declined further with the Omicron variant, which evades vaccine-generated antibodies within months.

And the sixty-five percent figure likely substantially overstates the actual protection from the shots, because of an epidemiological phenomenon called “healthy vaccine user bias.”

Put simply, physicians often withhold shots from people who are extremely frail or near death. They fear that vaccine side effects might kill those patients and that the vaccines will be pointless in any case.

In addition, the British paper confirms concerns I raised last year about a post-first-dose rise in infections. It shows a stunning increase in infections and hospitalizations after the first shot.

Patients were nearly twice as likely to be hospitalized for three weeks after the first dose, and more than twice as likely to be infected. In the second week, when infections peaked, they were almost four times as likely to contract the coronavirus.

(See that column of ORs – odds ratios – above 1? Above 1 is bad. Above 1 means vaccinated people are at HIGHER risk. Which is not how it’s supposed to work.)


A team of Oxford University researchers published the findings in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, a peer-reviewed journal, on June 30.

Their paper nominally focused on examining whether Covid vaccines were effective in overweight people and has received little attention. Many of its crucial details about vaccine efficacy are buried in an appendix.

The researchers matched a database that covers 1700 physician practices in England with national registries of Covid immunization, Sars-Cov-2 positive tests, hospitalizations, and death certificates. They were able to track more than 9 million patients from December 8, 2020, when vaccinations began, to November 17, 2021.

For vaccine advocates, the study’s only real positive is that it shows very low rates of hospitalization and death in people who received a third shot.

But even that finding comes with an asterisk. Because the study ended in mid-November, it covered only a couple of months of data at most anyone who received a booster – again covering the brief period in which the vaccines provide protection.

It should now be obvious the mRNA Covid jabs are not really vaccines at all. They are temporary generators of anti-spike protein antibodies whose protection even against the original or Delta strains wanes within months.

Their side effects, however, can last much longer.

(mRNA vaccine-induced myocarditis gets better in 90 days. Except when it doesn’t.)