Here is the latest from the Izium front where a Ukrainian counterattack made a deep push into Russian held lines.
The Ukrainians are also pulling in heavy weapons for a new push along their front lines.
Armored land bound Russian forces are coming in from the east and north. The Russian air force and army aviation have air superiority and pound the Ukrainian lines.
We can expect a lot of attacks on the quite thin and long supply lines of the Ukrainian spearhead. The town of Shevchenkove, where several big roads and train lines cross, may be a weak point of the Ukrainian offensive. Retaking it would cut the main Ukrainian supply lines in the area.
The latest Rybar situation report says (edited machine translation):
Battle for Kharkov: the situation on the Izium-Kuyansk section of the front – by the end of September 9, 2022
🔻 Kupyansk direction
▪️The sending of reserves to the Kupyansk section of the front by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation managed to stop the advance of the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine a few kilometers from the city line.
▪️ By the end of the day the Armed Forces of Ukraine established control over the villages of Chkalovskoye, Shevchenko, Borovskoye and control the Chuguev – Kupyansk highway to Grushevka, which allowed to transfer equipment and artillery systems to the combat contact line.
▪️ The Ukrainian command is forming a shock group for the assault on Kupyansk in the Grushevka and Staroverovka area. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation apply artillery and missile bombing at the places of concentration of enemy forces.
▪️ AFU conduct shelling of the rear settlements in the liberated territories. The village of Bolshaya Broluk was subjected to especially strong blows.
Ukrainian formations will block the reserves of the RF Armed Forces in Kupyansk and try to go around the city from the north, moving in the direction of Dvurechensky.
🔻 Izium direction
▪️ From the south of Izium the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing to Vernopolye and Dolina.
▪️ If an attempt to advance to Gorokovatka, the mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was rebuffed in the area of the village of Yasinovatoe.
▪️ The reserve forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation reached the eastern bank of the Oskol River which stopped attempts to cross the mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine across the river.
Apparently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will strengthen mobile units on the western coast of Oskol with heavy equipment and will try to reconnoiter the defense of Russian forces from Gorokhovatka.
🔻 Balaklia direction
▪️ There are unverified messages that the eastern blocks of Balaklia are still held by the detachments of the RF Armed Forces. In the near future, one should expect the blow of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine in the village of Vesele and Kunya.
In the near future, the Armed Forces will be attempted to attack Lyman from the Raygorodk. The main goal of the Ukrainian command on the site is to reach the Oskol reservoir and surround the Russian group near Izium.
This operation is THE big push by the Ukrainian military. Most of the heavier armored vehicles on the front seem to be from foreign countries.
If the Ukrainian army is willing to throw all heavy reserves into this operation, as it seem to do, the Russian army will have a chance to give it a decisive blow.
The alternative is to retreat to later fight elsewhere.
The operation reminds of one that played out at the end of 1944. Operation Wacht am Rhein, also known as the Ardennes offensive or the battle of the bulge, was a large German attempt to encircle western allied forces in the Netherlands and Belgium. On the German side some 450,000 troops took part. The offensive failed when good weather set in which allowed allied air supremacy to attack German supply lines and when the German tanks simply ran out of gas.