If you are hoping that Ukraine will pull a rabbit out of its hat and vanquish the Russians, this article is not for you. Let us start with one stark fact–Ukraine has not ousted Russian troops from a single piece of territory and held that territory since the start of the war. And no, Ukraine did not force the retreat of the Russian troops in March that surrounded Kiev in March. That was a classic feint and was used successfully to pin Ukraine forces around Kiev so that Russia could concentrate on Mariupol and the Donbas.
But for the sake of argument, let’s agree that Ukraine pushed the Russians out of their “siege” of Kiev. What has Ukraine taken and held since then? Easy answer. NOTHING. By contrast, Russia laid siege to Mariupol in early March and concluded the campaign in late May, with the surrender of more than 2500 Ukrainian Nazis. Russia then shifted its full attention to the Luhansk Republic and ousted Ukraine by the end of June. And now it is making steady progress in recapturing Donetsk with the help of the militias from Donetsk and Luhansk.
These facts notwithstanding, the Ukrainian Government continues to insist that victory is just around the corner. The latest source of optimism stems from the arrival of the U.S. muliple launch rocket systems (i.e., MLRS) known as the HIMARS. Just look at the headlines from the past week:
Russia has ammo shortages from Ukraine’s Himars and MLRS hits on weapons depots
Russians ‘in Panic Mode’ Over Strikes by U.S.-Supplied HIMARS: Ukraine
Ukraine’s new US rockets are causing fresh problems for Russia
Ukraine War Changes Tide Again: HIMARS | The Wentworth Report
Russia suffers ‘wild shell hunger’ as Ukraine hits arms depots with long-range Western rockets
Wow. Russia must be on the ropes. Surely they are retreating in panic in the face of this fierce firestorm. They have run out of shells and rockets and can no longer kill Ukrainian troops. Is that the story? Well, other headlines from today tell a different story:
Russia steps up attacks across Ukraine’s north, east, south
War in Ukraine: Russia steps up attacks with new missile strikes
Russia steps up attacks across Ukraine’s north, east, south (ABC News)
Russia hits western Ukraine in Kalibr cruise missile strike from submarine in Black Sea killing 20 (Fox News)
Strikes on Civilians Deep in Ukraine Show Russia’s Lethal Reach(NY Times)
Apparently, someone forgot to tell the Russians that they are out of missiles and are losing and are in a panic. Shell shortage? I don’t think so. Check out this video from today’s Russian bombardment of Seversk:
There is some good news. Lockheed Martin gets paid roughly $12 million dollars per HIMARS unit to crank these babies out. At least the shareholders of Lockheed Martin are doing well.