The main observation which one cannot help but agree with, comes from Andrei Martyanov and I rephrase somewhat:
The rate of change is markedly accelerating as the first result of the crumbling and implosion of the Ukraine as a state and the structure of its armed forces.
Things will go quicker now and they are, as discussed further!
First though, pure fantasy. We call it ‘narrative’ but it is fantasy!
This was found on a Ukrainian site : https://t.me/ice_inii
Take a look at a few things here: The US influence, the fantasy of being the Robin Williams character in the movie Good Morning Vietnam and the fantasy of being the gook! These fighters live in a movie. And then, the breakdown of the fantasy. This is another example of exactly what Martyanov means.
We stay for a moment in fantasy.
Andrei Martyanov commented on Lieutenant-General Kellog who, contrary to his statement about “everything he learned about war”, never learned shit. http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/when-bs-meter-goes-off-scale.html
A quick comparison of the US and the UK commentary on Putin’s speech
Here we have UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. This can only be classified as repugnant and if Kellog according to Martyanov ‘never learned shit’, this one only ‘talks shit’. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-defence-secretary-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine
A short snippet:
“I thought about the scale of their (ordinary Russian soldier) suffering across the Soviet Union, but also how the suffering was used, then as it is now, to cover up the inadequacy of those ruling in safety and comfort from behind the Kremlin walls above and within the General Staff nearby.
Foreign Minister Baerbock has no idea what she is saying and her grasp of history is non-existent.
“Germany is responsible for the defense of Ukraine and all of Europe,”
Zelensky, besides his other problems, is tone deaf ..
They are not ashamed any longer. They say it in the open
And then moving from fantasy, we have the voices of realism
“In his Victory Day speech on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin “calmly but firmly” stated that Russia had to take preemptive actions in its special operation in Ukraine as NATO had created an “absolutely unacceptable threat” at Russia’s borders. According to Chinese analysts, the speech was delivered in a “restrained” manner to send a clear signal to the West that Russia will not accept intensified pressure to squeeze Russia’s strategic space, but at the same time showed Putin was leaving some room for negotiation.” https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265207.shtml
US Embassy in China mocked by Chinese netizens after comparing Russia with Nazi Germany. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265112.shtml
We have to accept that the Ukraine was meant as a new Afghanistan. Take a look:
The US Department of Defense has claimed credit for “westernizing” the Ukrainian military by giving it training and weapons to oppose Russia, according to spokesman John Kirby. However, the results of the effort made over the past eight years apparently took by surprise even the US’ own military intelligence, he implied in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday. US officials had expected the imminent capture of Ukraine’s capital during first days of the conflict with Moscow. Kirby went on to fantasize :
The spokesman said military intelligence by nature is a mosaic that officers try to piece together, sometimes coming to erroneous conclusions. He then went on to complement the Department of Defense and the administration of President Joe Biden for a job well done in preparing Ukrainian troops to fight against Russia.
Narrative is a good word for this, but using the word fantasy is better!
So in the broader commenting environment, everyone comments on Mr.Putin, but Russia has lost the propaganda war? Who was it that said All Press is Good Press.
We end with Mr.Lavrov in one of his latest pressers:
The completion of the special operation will force the West to stop promoting a unipolar world under the dominance of the US.
The end of the special operation in Ukraine will contribute to the cessation of Western attempts to undermine international law.
The Russian Federation is interested in all civilians leaving the zones of the special operation in Ukraine.
The UN Secretary General missed the opportunity to achieve a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
A little more realism with a document that you can use for friends and family:
So if the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Israel says there are nazis in the Ukraine, just perhaps there are. A document that you may use for your friends. https://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2022&mm=04&dd=14&nav_id=113531
Returning for a moment to Martyanov’s statement, let’s add something to it.
The rate of change is markedly accelerating as the first result of the crumbling and implosion of the Ukraine as a state and the structure of its armed forces. In addition the fantasy narrative has become so ludicrous that it is showing clear signs of crumbling.
Line of Contact
This is a two and fro scenario. Bear in mind this is the line that had 8 years to dig in, dreaming of killing all Russians in the Donbass regions. Russian forces over this very long line are using various artillery to soften up, remove and kill Ukrainian forces. The Russians manoevre continuously against the dug in fighters. But they are not throwing good fighting soldiers against a hard wall. They retreat, bring in the heavy artillery, and move in again.
And then, they break through:
Units of the People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1553), supported by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, have completed mopping-up of Popasnaya from nationalists and broken through the deeply echeloned enemy defence and reached the administrative border of the Lugansk People’s Republic.
Yesterday morning Readovka reports that the whole theater is calmer at the moment but these skirmishes and softening up and manoevre happens continuously. Here are typical front line battles:
In the mean time, on the Ukrainian side, this is what is happening:
- Territorial defense fighters complain about being sent to the front
- Militants of the 101st Territorial Defense Brigade (TrO) from the Transcarpathian region complain that they were sent to the front line in the LPR. According to them, the formation was created to protect checkpoints in the rear and is not intended for combat operations.
- The militants have no military training. Many of them complain about health problems. The militants believe that they will become a target for Russian artillery.
- It should be noted that the units of the 101st Troop Brigade were transferred to the front line only three days ago, but they are already experiencing problems with morale.
- Recall that today was also a protest action organized by relatives of militants from the 103rd Troop Brigade from the Lvov region.
Back to creating brutal, costly and bloody fantasy:
From the Russian Mod
⚡️According to reliable information, the Kiev regime has carried out another bloody action in Kharkov Region based on the Bucha scenario.
▫️6 civilian vehicles with white flags mounted on them were shot at by AFU soldiers on a stretch of road between Staryi and Novyi Saltov.
▫️The photo and video footage of this heinous crime was made by specialists from the AFU’s Centre for Information and Psychological Operations.
🔹In addition, from the area of private houses in Belaya Krinitsa, Kherson region, the Ukrainian armed forces’ artillery struck several positions of the Russian Armed Forces in order to provoke retaliatory fire on residential buildings with civilians, whom the territorial defence fighters are not letting out of the blockaded settlement by holding them as a “human shield”.
❗️We warn in advance that these and other materials fabricated by the Kiev regime about alleged “Russian atrocities” are soon to be widely spread through the Western and Ukrainian media, as well as online resources.
And these are the ones this time, standing ready to record the fantasy and play it to an unsuspecting public (I wonder if they pay for the privilege?):
▫️Meanwhile, Norwegian media representatives were present in Belaya Krinitsa for photo and video recording of allegedly indiscriminate Russian strikes against civilians.
We had some spectacular firing on Odessa and environments. You see, there was this hotel where the head honchos of the Ukrainian forces were stationed. And close to that, was a shopping mall used as an ammunition depot.
We can take one comical moment: The special forces of the DPR army tracked down the headquarters of one of the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk direction. After waiting for their commanders to gather at headquarters, an ATGM was struck. After the surviving Ukrainians running out of the headquarters turned out to be naked, it became clear what their gunners were doing at meetings. Now the world community will accuse our side of mass killing of LGBT people. https://t.me/intelslava/28446
Snake Island – More fantasy propaganda
This one did not survive the fantasy: Ex commander of Ukraine’s 10th Naval Aviation Brigade, Colonel Igor Bedzai — announced dead by Ukrainian media. He was one of Ukraine’s top pilots — often flying missions in AD contested areas. The pilot died on May 7. It appears that he was piloting one of the helicopters that were shot down over Snake Island — the very same ones Ukraine claimed were Russian
◾️ The Kiev regime’s mindless PR campaign (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1558) to seize Snake Island on the eve of Victory Day resulted in the senseless deaths of more than five dozen Ukrainian fighters and members of elite AFU units, the loss of 4 aircraft, 10 helicopters, 3 boats and 30 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Snake Island – propaganda effort by the Ukraine
Trying to outshine the Russian 9th military parades by the Ukrainian Snake Island fantasy, was a comical error. The Russians are burying Ukie corpses floating up from the ocean.
Intel Slava Z reports this morning (Be very aware that this is NON VERIFIED!) On Snake Island, English and American high-ranking officers disappeared during the landing. For their sake, the Ukrainian military fought for two days. But it was not possible to return the officers, or at least their bodies. According to our source in the General Staff, an American marine lieutenant colonel, as well as an English major from the commando brigade of the marine corps, landed on Snake Island together with Ukrainian fighters.
They coordinated the work of NATO intelligence assets and the Ukrainian landing forces. Both officers landed in the first wave. But then the Russians shot down three helicopters and one landing craft was sunk. The remaining boats withdrew, leaving the first wave of landing on the shore. According to our source, London and Washington demanded that Zelensky make every effort to return their officers. Despite several attempts to re-land on the island, it was not possible to find out the fate of the English and American marines. It is assumed that they died in battle with the Russians. But so far, as our source says, there is no confirmation of this information. It is possible that both were captured. In turn, the attempt to return their bodies cost the Ukrainian forces several planes and helicopters shot down, as well as several dozen dead marines and special forces.
The head of the DPR Pushilin: there are no civilians left at Azovstal, so our hands are untied
Back to Martyanov’s truism.
One of his commentators did a chart of Russian strikes. (Thank-you!)
Let’s get some help from Geroman and assess the Russian Strikes.
You guys have no idea how much damage Russia causes DAILY with air-defense, ballistic, cruise & air-to-ground missiles. Every day the Russian MoD runs a briefing and moves on. I will let you know what got destroyed today (this was a day ago), so you understand the scope of Ukrainian losses:
Let’s parse the Russian Mod report of a day ago:
- unspecified number of Ukrainian helicopters destroyed on the ground by an Onyx missile in Artsiz, Odessa region
- ammunition depot destroyed near Gulkhov
- MLRS “Smerch” and 1 S300 in the Bohodukhov area
- air-defense shot down 2 MiG-29 in Iverskoe and Novodonetskoe
- one Su-25 shot down near Pogonovka in the Kharkiv region
- UAV’s shot down near Snake Island inc 2 Bayraktar TB2’s
- UAV’s shot down in Balakleya, Shiikovka, Goptovka, Kamienka, Aveevka + a few other places 8- a US supplied counter-battery radar destroyed in Zolotoy
- MLRS “Grad” & 2 command posts near Popasna
- Russia MLRS and artillery hit 26 command posts, 26 artillery units in firing positions & 211 areas of manpower and equipment concentration resulting in up to 350 kills
THIS WAS 1 DAY – It happens literally every day
And in the background, Russian engineers have completed humanitarian demining of Kamyanka, Izyum district of Kharkov region. And they still have time to give us footage of S-300V anti-aircraft missile system and Igla man-portable missile system operators (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1552) in action. They also have time to hand out humanitarian aid.
Here is today’s early Mod Report.
▫️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
✈️💥During the night, operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 93 assets, including 2 command posts, 69 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 3 ammunition depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
💥Missile troops and artillery units have hit 407 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, destroying 13 command posts, 4 positions of Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile systems and 14 ammunition depots.
▫️The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 280 nationalists and up to 59 armoured and motor vehicles.
💥Russian air defence means have shot down 9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles: 4 near Balakleya in Kharkov Region, 3 near Rubezhnoe in Lugansk Region, 1 near Snake Island and 1 Bayraktar-TB2 near Arkhangelskoe in Nikolaev Region overnight.
For minute details, please look at https://readovka.news/
Moon of Alabama also has a good line-up here https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-putin-on-why-the-war-started-failed-attempts-on-snake-island-other-issues-.html#more
With all of the above, and the many testimonies from Ukrainian soldiers that their commanders are just deserting and abandoning them in the field, we may see a quick collapse. What is quick? I don’t know.