Lenin’s unnatural mini-empire is on the verge of what might soon be its complete and final collapse if Russian spy chief Naryshkin’s report about Poland’s plot to partition it is correct. According to his country’s intelligence sources, Poland is conspiring with the US to dispatch its troops under the cover of peacekeepers to the portions of Western Ukraine that used to be under Warsaw’s control during the interwar Second Polish Republic. They’ll then seize control of strategic facilities from the Ukrainian National Guard, after which Poland will cultivate pro-Polish Ukrainian politicians to counteract the Neo-Nazis that historically originated from the Galicia region. The last step will then be to politically incorporate this territory into Poland itself.
I actually predicted exactly this scenario two days after the commencement of Russia’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine, having written that “NATO might want to draw its own red line in the remnants of the increasingly crumbling Ukrainian state by reviving the West Ukrainian People’s Republic, whether as a self-declared independent state that immediately joins the military alliance in order to come under its nuclear umbrella or by having it (re-)’unify’ with Poland and achieving the same end via those means instead.” That sequence of events appears on the cusp of happening according to Naryshkin, who said that it would be undertaken without a NATO mandate and comprise a so-called coalition of the willing.
Prospective partners might be Hungary and Romania, both of which had parts of their historical territory amputated from their state by Stalin after World War II. Irrespective of their speculative participation in this reported partition plot, any tangible move in this direction by Poland would indicate that the US-led West believes that Ukrainian statehood has gone kaput as a result of recent events. This state’s artificially created borders can no longer be held together after Russian forces swept across Eastern and Southern Ukraine, where they’ve remained for over 60 days despite NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine that Secretary of Defense Austin all but officially admitted to just the other day.
While there are certainly some ultra-nationalists in Poland who’d like to see Western Ukraine (re)-“united” with their country, this scenario actually entails considerable economic and reputational costs for the ruling “Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish abbreviation) party. As I explained earlier in the month, PiS is actually a fake conservative-nationalist movement that’s really just another liberal-globalist front for the European elite. In particular, “Orban’s Conservative-Multipolar Example Exposes Kaczynski As A Liberal-Globalist Fraud”, especially after “Poland’s Ukrainization Put The Final Nail In PiS’ Faux Nationalist Project”.
Poles have become second-class citizens in their own country while Ukrainian refugees are paraded around as first-class citizens. They’re so privileged that they receive a vast array of state benefits, including housing, transportation, food, and even priority for emergency medical operations above local Poles who’ve waited a while to receive such life-saving treatments. In a sense, Poland has abruptly become an apartheid-like society where the new arrivals have been treated by officials even better than the same people who voted them into power. As I explained just prior to the Ukrainian Conflict’s onset, “Poland’s Planned Absorption Of Millions Of Ukrainian Refugees Has Ulterior Motives”.
Basically, Kaczynski calculated that he could leverage this massive expat community of privileged people in order to exert influence over the rest of rump Ukraine as part of Poland’s plans to expand its “sphere of influence” across the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) states on an openly Russophobic pretext that resembles a new strain of fascism. The problem, however, is that his base doesn’t support becoming second-class citizens in their own country. They voted for PiS partially because of its previously strident defense of Polish borders against the thousands of people who’ve attempted to invade their country, not to have it open the gates to millions of Ukrainian refugees who’ve since become “privileged guests”.
Apart from the counterproductive domestic political consequences of Poland’s reported plot to annex Western Ukraine, there’s also the obvious economic ones too. Depending on how much territory is taken, upwards of 10 million people might be added to Poland’s population on top of the over 3 million refugees that it’s already hosting. Not even counting the costs of ensuring those people’s general welfare, Ukraine is generally considered to be a lot poorer and less developed in all respects than Poland, including its Western region that’s regarded as a lot better than its other parts. The costs of incorporating this territory and its people into Poland could be billions upon billions of dollars.
Up until this point, Poland was the best-performing Central & Eastern European (CEE) economy though it’s now experiencing its highest inflation in over two decades. Furthermore, its refusal to comply with President Putin’s geo-economic judo move demanding payment for gas in rubles is directly responsible for Europe’s worst-case economic scenario that’ll in all likelihood lead to a further increase of prices, more unemployment, and consequently more political instability. All costs connected to Western Ukraine’s potential annexation to Poland will be paid by Polish taxpayer and occur at the expense of developing the people and territory within its universally recognized borders.
With this observation in mind, the scenario of annexing Western Ukraine would actually result in the largest transfer of Polish wealth since the loss of the “Kresy” after World War II. Poland’s socio-economic stability will certainly suffer and perhaps be irreparably affected by such a radical redistribution of wealth to the millions of refugees within its territory and those folks living in Western Ukraine who’ll be the recipients of these astronomically large investments. That predictably being the case and considering everything else that was shared in this analysis, it’s contrary to Poland’s objective national interests to annex that chunk of Lenin’s unnatural mini-empire though it might still happen regardless.
By Andrew Korybko Via https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=2797