The Evolving Ideological Dimensions Of The New Cold War’s Western Eurasian Theater

The evolving ideological dimensions of the New Cold War’s Western Eurasian theater between Russia and NATO are that the first-mentioned is expected to more confidently articulate its anti-fascist and conservative-nationalist outlook to the world in order to counteract the second’s aggressive export of fascist and liberal-globalist views onto all others.

The Return Of Ideology

The latest intensification in the New Cold War’s Western Eurasian theater between Russia and NATO following the commencement of the former’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine and the latter’s unprecedented preplanned response to it will inevitably come to have a more obvious ideological dimension with time. Both sides are already framing their struggle against the other in such a way: Russia has consistently maintained that it’s fighting Western-backed ethno-fascists in Ukraine while the US-led West presents its opponent as an “authoritarian threat to democracy”. There’ll likely be more to it than just that, though, which is what the present piece will explore.

“Deep State” Dynamics

The post-Old Cold War attempted convergence between Russia and the West had noticeably failed by late 2020 once it became clear that former US President Donald Trump wouldn’t be able to successfully clinch a “New Détente” with Moscow due to the subversive efforts of the anti-Russian faction of his country’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”). That observation prompted the author to publish an analysis about “A New Wall For A New Cold War”, which drew attention to the increasingly irreconcilable differences between Europe’s liberal-globalism and Russia’s conservative-nationalism.

This ideological trend was exacerbated following incumbent US President Joe Biden’s scandalous entrance into office even though some hope still credibly remained that the anti-Chinese “deep state” faction that had earlier just assumed predominant influence over determining the US’ grand strategic goals might successfully make progress on Trump’s desired “New Détente” with Russia. The purpose behind advancing this scenario, which Biden himself attempted to do in person during his June 2021 summit with President Putin in Geneva, was to free up the Pentagon to redeploy more of its forces from Europe to the Asia-Pacific in order to more aggressively “contain” China.

PiS’ Power Play

That trajectory was unexpectedly offset after Poland aided its anti-Russian US “deep state” allies by encouraging Kiev to provoke military-strategic tensions with Moscow last fall so as to facilitate this faction’s return to power over America’s permanent policymaking institutions. This sequence of events was described in detail in the author’s most recent analysis explaining how “Poland’s Ruling Party Helped Provoke The Worst Security Crisis Since WWII”. To concisely summarize, that country’s ruling “Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish abbreviation) party sought to simultaneously appeal to its American and German “frenemies” who’d hitherto tried to overthrow it through Hybrid War.

It did so by presenting itself as the US’ top anti-Russian vanguard while also sacrificing its domestic conservative-nationalist principles by accepting literally millions of Ukrainian refugees in a surprising move that was universally praised by the EU despite that same bloc previously criticizing it for alleged “democracy” and “rule of law” violations in the months prior. The end result is that the joint US-German pressure campaign upon Poland was immediately suspended for the time being at least while PiS was able to secure Washington’s support for pressuring Germany and all other EU countries to comply with its radical “de-Russification” demands and associated unofficial declaration of Hybrid War on Russia.

The ”PiS Precedent”

The ideological impact of this development is that PiS is now pioneering a hybrid liberal-conservative/globalist-nationalist model whereby elements of both are now observable from its policies. It might be a unique creation or it could end up being the model that other EU states might soon emulate. In practice, the “PiS precedent” combines pro-sovereignty and globalist socio-economic policies that attempt to strike a balance between the liberals and conservatives within that country’s mixed electorate. It can be interpreted as a series of mutual compromises between each prevailing faction and will likely be upheld through the imposition of more totalitarian policies.

Nevertheless, PiS’ dangerous gambit might very well backfire if it loses the support of its conservative-nationalist base that helped it narrowly remain in power after summer 2020’s elections if they “defect” from the ruling party in protest of its submission to some liberal-globalist demands (especially regarding refugees) by voting for smaller and much more truly conservative-nationalist parties during the fall 2023 elections. That could then result in the American-German opposition proxy “Civic Platform” (PO per its Polish abbreviation) returning to power, which would actually represent a coup of sorts for Berlin since Washington would retain its hegemony over Warsaw regardless of who’s leading it.

America’s “Nesting Egg” Strategy

That outcome could lead to the “PiS precedent” entering the dustbin of history and liberal-globalism coming back with a bang in Poland. In other words, everything that the ruling party hoped to help preserve and which it hasn’t (yet?) sacrificed to its ideological foes in its desperate self-interested gamble to remain in power at all costs could easily be lost if that happens. Germany would then complete its hegemonic conquest of Poland without firing a shot just like the US just completed its own over the EU by exploiting Russia’s special operation that America itself provoked after its anti-Russian “deep state” faction refused to respect Moscow’s security guarantee requests from last December.

If observers conceptualize everything as Russian nesting eggs, then Poland would be within Germany’s that’s in turn within America’s should that scenario come to pass. As it presently stands, however, the “PiS precedent” has given the US strategic flexibility to recalibrate some of the ideological dimensions of the New Cold War’s Western Eurasian theater between NATO and Russia by insincerely incorporating some superficially conservative-nationalist aspects into it for deterring patriotic resistance to this Hybrid War takeover of their supposedly pro-sovereignty country. Nevertheless, the US’ ruling liberal-globalists would likely prefer to simply replace PiS with PO for ideological reasons once it fulfills its purpose.

That’s why PiS might end up ruing its dangerous gamble to remain in power at all costs since everything that it built might soon end up lost if that happens. The only reason why grey cardinal Jaroslaw Kaczynski already sacrificed so much to his ideological enemies, especially what he seems to regard as its precious ethno-religious homogeneity that so many Poles supported protecting as evidenced by their approval of Warsaw’s strict stance during last year’s Eastern European Migrant Crisis, is because he likely accepted that PiS wouldn’t win the fall 2023 elections and would thus lose everything if he didn’t. That feared outcome might become a self-fulfilling prophecy if his base abandons PiS as predicted.  

Conservative-Nationalist Clarifications

Russia would then need to prepare for more effectively countering the liberal-globalists’ full ideological conquest of the entire European continent in that case, which is why this conservative-nationalist Great Power must immediately begin proudly flaunting its soft power appeal without delay. The upcoming International Anti-Fascist Conference in August isn’t just an important soft power move for flexing its anti-fascist credentials in contrast to the US-led West’s de facto embrace of this ideology via its increasing totalitarianism, but also a strategic opportunity to articulate the non-ethnic dimensions of fascism such as its liberal-globalist aspects and proudly showcase its own conservative-nationalism.

Those on the left who are sympathetic to Russia’s geostrategic stance in the New Cold War might feel uncomfortable associating with a Great Power that espouses conservative-nationalism but these terms simply refer to its support for society’s traditional values and the population’s grassroots patriotism. Conservativism means something different in each society, which each true supporter of this concept should respect, just like nationalism shouldn’t automatically be equated with World War II-era concerns about this term but seen as a synonym for being proud of one’s own society without expressing any supremacist sentiments against any others.

Scenario Forecasting

Taken together, the evolving ideological dimensions of the New Cold War’s Western Eurasian theater between Russia and NATO are that the first-mentioned is expected to more confidently articulate its anti-fascist and conservative-nationalist outlook to the world in order to counteract the second’s aggressive export of fascist and liberal-globalist views onto all others. Russia respects every country’s sovereign decision to develop its economy, political system, and society according to whatever model their legitimate leadership regards as the most effective and in tune with their people’s needs while the US-led West is convinced of its ideology’s universality and seeks to impose it upon everyone else.  

Even in the event that Poland’s faux conservative-nationalists don’t lose in the fall 2023 elections and the “PiS precedent” isn’t replaced with Germany’s preferred full-scale liberal-globalism, Warsaw’s model likely won’t appeal to many outside the EU since it still contains way too many ideological sacrifices to make the many sincere conservative-nationalists across the Global South comfortable enough accepting it. This means that it’ll likely remain contained to Poland’s envisioned “sphere of influence” in Central & Eastern (CEE) Europe that might inevitably be taken over by Germany with time if Berlin resumes supporting its PO opposition proxies for ideological reasons after PiS services its anti-Russian purpose.

Concluding Thoughts

It’s for this reason why observers should expect the ideological divide between Russia and the US-led West to only widen with time assuming the high likelihood of Germany’s Hybrid War plans against PiS eventually succeeding due to that ruling party’s supporters possibly defecting from it for smaller but sincerely conservative-nationalist parties ahead of the fall 2023 elections as a form of protest against PiS sacrificing its self-proclaimed values. With these predictions in mind, Russia must begin compellingly articulating its unofficial anti-fascist and conservative-nationalist ideology without delay in order to remain ahead of the curve and thus more effectively appeal to the widest range of possible partners.

By Andrew Korybko Via