Rostislav Ishchenko on “will Poland invade the western Ukraine?”

Question: do you believe that Poland will send forces into the Ukraine?

No, I don’t think the US is giving conflicting instructions to Kiev. The fact is that when we are negotiating with Ukraine, we are, in fact, indirectly negotiating with the United States. Because, it is clear that we are fighting not with Zelensky, but with the United States, now, on the territory of Ukraine. The United States is at war with us to the last Ukrainian, but the United States is at war nonetheless. Therefore, when we offer surrender to Zelensky, we offer it to Zelensky, and in response, through the mouth of Zelensky, the United States offers us to surrender. They say: “Well, you withdraw troops from Ukraine, clear the Crimea and Donbass, return them to Ukraine, and then we’ll talk.” So, it is clear that Zelensky himself cannot put forward such demands, they are simply absurd.

Therefore, in this case, since two global forces are fighting each other, the demands are practically global. These are political demands to each other for unconditional surrender. It is clear that such requirements can only be met if one of the parties has won on the battlefield. Completely won. Not in Melitopol, Mariupol, there, or even in Kharkov, but completely won on the battlefield. That’s when something can grow out of this, out of these requirements. Therefore, now it does not matter whether you conduct these negotiations or you can not conduct them – this is already a field of Russian diplomacy.

The fact is that a long time ago, a decade, or even two decades ago, the United States entered into a systemic crisis. That is, the system built – political, military, economic, financial – has ceased to correspond to the realities of the modern world. At first, it was not entirely noticeable … many people generally denied that the United States could ever enter into a crisis, and so on .. But gradually these crisis phenomena grew, and Obama was already going to the polls with a statement that the United States was in crisis and reforms must be carried out. Then Trump went to the polls with the same thing. Then Biden came and practically announced that he would implement Trump’s program because the United States needed to carry out reforms in a crisis.

The fact is that the United States is not in a position to reform the economy now. In order to reform the economy it is necessary, as they advised us and everyone else in the early nineties, to go through shock therapy. That is, without shock, it is impossible to rebuild. This means that a huge number of Americans will sharply lose their standard of living for some period of time, and if, for example, in the 2000s, it was about the fact that changes can be made there, say, in 2, 3, 5 years, then now we are not talking about this, now we are talking about the fact that this will continue for decades, that you can go into a New Great Depression and it is not known when you will be able to get out of it. Naturally, the United States is afraid of this and does not want to, because a sharp drop in living standards leads to social instability and actually calls into question the existence of the American state, at least in the form in which we know it. That is, it can be preserved in some other form, but with other people at the head, with other families as a leading and guiding force, there with other parties, and so on. Naturally, the ruling circles of the United States do not want this at all. In order to maintain the status quo, the United States must maintain hegemony in any way, which means that even if this world is half destroyed, the United States must be the hegemon. I mean, it will be bad in the United States, but everyone else in the world should be even worse.

Therefore, the United States choses the way of confrontations. They cannot make an agreement, because they cannot yield.So if you have to yield, you are no longer the hegemon. If you are not a hegemon, you cannot divert other people’s resources to maintain the welfare of your citizens. If you can’t do this, then you start to crumble. So they follow the path of confrontation on the following principle: “Hey, guys, of course we understand that we are already not a hegemon. However, if you dare not to recognize us as such, we will start a war and it will be worse for you. So let’s think about it.”

Therefore, by the way, in recent years, several times Putin has told the Americans that we are ready to fight. We are even ready for a nuclear war, if anything. So that they do not build illusions about the fact that blackmail can be turned on. Yes, what conditions did Hillary Clinton offer when she went to the polls? Turn on the nuclear blackmail of Russia so that she concedes. So that they don’t have illusions that they don’t go too far along this path, because when you go the path of confrontation, each next step cuts off your path back. Sooner or later you come to a situation where war becomes inevitable, even a nuclear one. That is not something desirable, but necessary, because you have no other options left.

Well, you see, they are trying to lead the remnants of the West, the so-called free world there. Because it’s not always the West, there is Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, it’s still East. They are trying to keep their allies, their vassals under their control, to lead all this, to create such a closed system that will be in hostile relations with the rest of the world, while retaining the opportunity to spoil everyone. And again, try to keep the most of it, as they consider, – a high-tech world. And, relying on these capabilities, to re-conquer the planet. But I think that they are very much mistaken in this regard, because the manufacturing has long been located outside of both the United States and Europe. Now you can produce anything you want without their consent to the right to a patent. If we are talking about a global confrontation. In most areas of life and activity, we have sufficient technology and sufficient technological literacy. We just couldn’t launch many things on the market because the market was too narrow for us, – the western companies were already working on it. Take for example smartphones: the Russian market simply wasn’t big enough to outperform Apple. They’re just like a global company, like other companies, they were just in the perfect position from the start. And no company can enter other markets without winning its own, in principle.

That’s why now the United States are seriously mistaken when they think that they will just leave technology under them, which means that they will make everyone else bow down. It was before, being a hegemon, that they could arrange price scissors according to which these high-tech goods sold for more than raw materials, food, and so on. Now, we see a frenzied rise in prices for raw materials and foodstuffs that completely devalue the European industrial and technological power or the American one. Because if China can buy raw materials in Russia two or three times cheaper than Europe, or even four or five times cheaper, then it immediately becomes more competitive accordingly. While the enterprises of the same European brands in China will continue to operate exactly as they will keep working with us. The factories that we have built will not go anywhere, they will work even if European companies leave us. The factories will still work with our companies, will change brands, and still produce. Overall, by and large, it’s the same.

That is, if we succeed, we will sell a little less, but it will cost much more. If we fail, we will sell more and it will cost a little less, but still big money.

Therefore, until now, while the West is in confrontation with us, the price tags for energy carriers will not fall. In both cases, the situation is beneficial for us.

If Biden lobbies for the rejection of Russian energy, then the European economy will die, and the world will become one less competitor not only for the United States, but for us too. Because, in this case, we will be able to deliver our goods to the vacant place in Europe sooner or later.

So let him go. The most dangerous thing there is not that he is going to talk about a ban on the import of Russian oil to Europe. He is going to Poland to talk about the possibility of introducing peacekeeping forces from the west to the territory of Ukraine.

Moreover, the United States formed its position quite cunningly. They said no, it would not be NATO forces, but it could be the forces of some NATO countries. That is, it seems that the United States has nothing to do with this, it’s just that individual countries decided themselves, but these are NATO countries, and if it comes into confrontation with Russia, it’s clear that the question will immediately arise, what will be the reaction of NATO? How will NATO support its allies? Will it support it? And if not, then does NATO need such a thing? And if so, in what way? Money, goods, weapons? Or some armed forces will be sent to help them… And then who else will enter into a confrontation with Russia and how far this confrontation can lead.

Let me remind you that Macron called for preparations for a pan-European war. And he did not rely on French desires but on concrete actions of the United States. When he assessed the very situation. And his assessment, in general, is close to the truth. That is, it is clear that the All-European War may not happen, because at least we do not want this, and we are fighting hard against it, and the Europeans themselves are not particularly fond of it. But, nevertheless, there are forces in Europe, like the Poles, who are making these proposals, and outside of Europe, it is the United States, which would like to start a major war in Europe with the participation of Russia. And they are fighting for their interests, and who will win there, time will tell.

I do not think that Poles really want a part of the territory of Ukraine, because it is to get somewhere between 10-15 million Bandera for 35 million Poles. This is a lot. This is not the 2 million that Poland digested after the Great Patriotic War.

This can destabilize Poland very much, because such a minority makes up a third of the entire population, which is absolutely hostile to this population. Bandera massacred the Poles, and the Poles hate Bandera. And when these two cultures collide on the same territory in a non-abstract way, such as, everyone lives in their own country and both hate Russia; – and when they collide on the same territory it turns out that they also hate each other, – for Poland it will not be like a gift.

It is important for the Poles to maintain a Ukrainian buffer between themselves and Russia. Therefore, theoretically, by entering western Ukraine, they can try to preserve Ukrainian statehood at least in three, four, at least five regions, and this Ukrainian statehood will be due to the demarcation line, not making peace with Russia, but concluding a truce on the principle of the Minsk agreements. They will, because of the line of demarcation, all the time claim the entire territory of Ukraine, the Crimea, the Donbass and even the Kuban and Voronezh.

And Russia will always have this problem, a splinter sticking out in the boot, which will not allow much concentration against Poland.

Therefore, the Poles are making serious enough efforts to preserve Ukrainian statehood, in one form or another. Another thing is that they are also afraid, because you don’t understand that if they go out alone on their own initiative without any support, they will simply be kicked in the neck and thrown back, and this will end the liberation campaign.

But they understand that they cannot rely on the verbal, political support of the United States. That the United States will put pressure on their European allies to provide more help, and so on. And if all this works out, if the Poles know that they are not alone, but at least two or three of them, and that, for example, Germany, France, everyone else was forced to somehow help, for example, to send military equipment, transfer aviation , then they may well afford to venture into western Ukraine.

Ukraine somehow feels insecure in such a position, but the fact is that Russian forces are also unable to stretch indefinitely. You see, we are even dealing with Ukraine step by step. That is, not everything at once, although the configuration of the Ukrainian borders made it possible, given sufficient military resources, to complete the problem, to close the issue in three weeks, and after that to deal only with cleansing.

But our military resources are not unlimited. In order to create an appropriate army, it is necessary to mobilize. which no one wants to do, because we still have a special operation not a war. If Polish resources are connected to these Ukrainian resources, which are now opposing Russia, then the problem of promotion will be even stronger. If other NATO countries are looming behind Poland, then the question arises whether we can grind all these armies that are potentially opposing us with the help of available forces, or we need to either mobilize or resort to nuclear weapons. Especially since any NATO country entering into a conflict is a country of a bloc that has nuclear weapons. In accordance with the Russian military doctrine, we can strike such a bloc with a nuclear strike even first.

As you understand, the issue is very difficult to resolve, and both of these decisions will be extremely disadvantageous, including for Russia. It doesn’t matter who wins later, but this also means big losses, and not only human, but economic, and so on and so forth.

Therefore, naturally, we are trying to avoid this option, and are trying to close the issue with Ukraine without the participation of our Western friends and partners. We try not to let them interfere in this matter. In this regard, of course, we use the position of the United States, because they do not want to give guarantees to anyone, and we demonstrate that we will fight. Consequently, if the United States does not give you guarantees of military support, you understand that yes, they will fight with you longer, not 3 months, but 6 months, not 6 months, but a year. But all the same, they will grind you down, and then the question arises, why do we Poles need such pleasure? Well, we’ll fight for a year, we’ll distribute orders, and then what? Then collect Poland brick by brick?

Therefore, now the pro-American European lobby is in a state of unstable equilibrium; it wants to intervene in this conflict, but is afraid. The Americans do not yet give sufficient guarantees.

Biden is now going to Poland to talk about exactly this, and we’ll see what he tells them.

Well, I think not now, not now, but in general, given what trends have prevailed in the Baltics. Sooner or later the denazification operation will have to be carried out, because, as the history of Ukraine shows, living next to the Nazi state, even if it is small, means everything equally uncomfortable.

Just because we are two different systems, we are on different sides of good and evil, and we will always be in confrontation with each other, and confrontation with the state that is on our borders will always be used by our enemies, regardless of who is this enemy at the moment.

Therefore, naturally, if the Balts do not take it reasonably, then sooner or later they, just like Ukraine, will ask for the denazification operation. Ukraine asked for a long time, in fact, persuaded for 30 years.

Therefore, Ukraine began to prepare for a war with Russia from the first day of its Independence. It was, by the way, her idea-fix. Well, it was getting ready, getting ready, now 30 years have passed – she got ready. Finally, she asked for the war. By and large, the Balts behave in the same way. They now think that they are covered by NATO and the EU, but as the practice of recent years has shown, this is a very unreliable umbrella.

It is unlikely that anyone will be especially tense and risk a major war for the Baltic states. Moreover, there is always a casus bellum. It’s just that now, of course, Russia is too busy to go to the Baltic states. If only they won’t interfere with Russia on their own along with the Poles. They once tried to attack Belarus. They can repeat. If they themselves do not get involved in this matter, then the problem, the Baltics, is a problem of the distant future. During this time, they can change their minds, correct themselves, establish normal contacts, and choose other politicians.

But if the Baltic statehood develops in the same direction in which it has been developing for the last thirty years, then sooner or later the denazification operation is inevitable.

Via https://thesaker.is/rostislav-ishchenko-on-will-poland-invade-the-western-ukraine/