People Asked, I Respond. On the Run.

Remember, I drill this idea in for a long time: only powerful issue ultimatums. Weak cannot issue ultimatums which mean anything. 

1. Russia did issue ultimatum to the combined West. Drafts of the framework for new security agreement between Russia and the West (NATO) are but a small part of a larger ultimatum. Albeit this ultimatum also is articulated through statements of the high level Russia’s Foreign Ministry people, such as statement by the Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko:

 

“Мы как раз даем понять, что мы готовы разговаривать о том, чтобы военный сценарий или военно-технический сценарий перевести в некий политический процесс, который реально укрепит военную безопасность <…> всех государств на пространстве ОБСЕ, Евроатлантики, Евразии. А если этого не получится, то мы уже обозначили им (НАТО – прим. ТАСС), тогда мы тоже перейдем в вот этот режим создания контругроз, но тогда будет поздно нас спрашивать, почему мы приняли такие решения, почему мы разместили такие системы”, – сказал он.

Translation: “We just make it clear that we are ready to talk about how to translate the military scenario or the military-technical scenario into a political process that will actually strengthen the military security <…> of all states in the OSCE, Euro-Atlantic, Eurasian space. If this is not going to happen, then we have already designated them (NATO – TASS comment), then we will also switch to this mode of creating counter-threats, but then it will be too late to ask us why we made such decisions, why we have deployed such systems, “he said.

I highlighted in yellow and underlined this crucial semantics.  

2. I am ON record for years: Russia has both overwhelming military advantage and escalation dominance in the Eastern Europe, thus the threats in case US (NATO) decide that they want to continue to play dumb:

a) Removing guarantees of non-invasion of 404 and, in fact, preparing for regime change in Kiev. If need be, NATO intel installations and troops’ bases could be wiped out (possibly without warning) as a warm up. 

b) Russia will position hypersonic weapons, including nuclear-tipped near NATO members (such as Baltic States) and may in addition:

c) Create additional shock (in reality–strike) tank armies;

d) Russia will supply China with earlier versions of 3M22 (possibly Kinzhal) and will ensure that China has a decisive advantage over US and Royal Navies in her First Island Chain, while simultaneously providing China with latest AD/AM defense. S-500 may appear there even earlier than in India. 

e) There is some pool of Russia’s weapon systems we haven’t seen yet and I can only imagine what those can do. I think some people in Pentagon have an idea and they wouldn’t want to deal with that. 

f) Russia, certainly, will accelerate the rearmament of pr. 949A to 949AM and pr. 971M SSGNs to carry 3M14 Kalibr and P-800 Onyx and will return them to patrols along both shores of North America. 

3. Russia understands the split with the West and is ready to take any consequences, including, already declining, shrinkage of trade and reduction of the supply of hydrocarbons to EU. Let the US deal with it… Ah, wait, US is making a killing in South East Asia selling its LNG and, frankly, EU is not a competitor with Asian economies which do not even bargain–they just buy all energy whatever the price. If Europe wants to say something to Russia–individual countries can go to Moscow and see if Moscow cares. 

Those who follow this blog attentively, they should remember this from month ago: 

 

Russia does not need 404, in fact, Russians overwhelmingly do not want those people in their lives, they don’t want to pay for them, and they want them to stay away from Russia in every conceivable way, bar pure geography which cannot be changed. And that’s the problem for Russia, because in the end Russia will have to deal with this shithole, which like a cyst placed itself at Russia’s South-Western borders and continues to deteriorate towards cancerous tumor with increasing speed. The United States, realistically, doesn’t need 404 either, because while the US still exercises the idea of using 404 as a anti-Russia ram both in geopolitical and economic senses, and sleeps and dreams about Russia “invading” this territory, the US is facing one serious challenge here: what IF US desires come true and Russia DOES indeed decide to end this drama and finish off Nazi regime in Kiev?   

As I repeat ad nauseam–Russia is the only country in the world which can, without resorting to nuclear weapons, defeat NATO in Europe. Moreover, it is the only country in the world which can self-sustain economically or can sustain herself without trade with EU. This trade was going downhill anyway. And while Russia’s exports to EU grew as of lately, much of it is also due to Russia making a killing on gas spot market. Judging by the scale of Power of Siberia and moves to build (in Russian) Power of Siberia-2, with Xi and Putin discussing this issue 3 days ago, Russia’s strategic reorienting towards Big Asia is essentially complete and, hey, they can continue to sanction whatever they want. I know some kindergartens near my mom’s home which they didn’t sanction yet. How reckless of them. 

Conclusion: Russia is ready (she was for some time) and she gives NATO the last chance to save face and improve the atmosphere. If not–404 will be eliminated. Plus NATO’s military infrastructure will be removed from Baltic States. 

In related news, Orion UAV of Russia works against other drones. 

 

Remember? Only strong issue ultimatums. Plus, as Russian proverb says: Русские долго запрягают, но быстро ездят. Russians take a long time to harness, but they drive fast.