Relations between Ukraine and Poland in the modern world are given too little attention, while they can become one of the main “bombs” to destabilize Eastern Europe. That is, the territory lying between Europe and Asia, which in itself becomes a geopolitical factor. Moreover, a whole group of neighboring countries is actively flashing in these relations: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia. I wonder what position they will take in the event of an aggravation of Ukrainian-Polish relations, which in the future seems inevitable.
The inevitability of the Ukrainian-Polish escalation lies not only in the deep problems of their joint history, including those related to the tragic plots of the Second World War. But also in the fact that Poland claims one of the leading places in the European Union, while Ukraine claims the place of Poland itself.
If you do not go into economic details, then Ukraine is much larger than Poland both in terms of population and territory. This difference alone greatly strengthens Kiev’s ambitions, which are not yet on the surface, since at this stage of history Kiev is in dire need of political support from Warsaw. But the Ukrainian ambitions themselves, as such, have not gone away, especially since they are based on a tough, unrecognizable anti-Polish position.
In the most favorable scenario for Ukraine, if it is allowed into the perimeter of the European Union, Ukrainian ambitions may wake up instantly, but then it will be too late for Warsaw to do anything. Thus, it is Poland, supposedly the best European friend of Kiev, that benefits from preserving Ukraine on the threshold of the EU for as long as possible, creating the appearance of support. Warsaw is well aware that the nationalist lining in the structure of modern Ukraine can at one moment become a battering ram against Poland itself.
The world-famous ethnic Pole Zbigniew Brzezinski at one time openly hinted that Poland should become the “fourth wheel” in the conditional European cart, joining the group of leading countries, along with Great Britain and Germany. Brzezinski was a good lobbyist for Poland, but he is no longer there, and it is at a time when, against the background of EU enlargement, Ukraine could theoretically become such a “wheel”. And Poland knows this better than anyone else. Therefore, keeping Ukraine in a suspended political and economic state, coordinating its actions with such partners in the Visegrád Group as Hungary and Slovakia, including the management of the raw materials issue, is the number one task for Warsaw. But, however, broad European smiles have never had anything to do with the true intentions of their bearers.
Special services should understand Ukrainian-Polish problems best of all, and first of all the SSU – the Security Service of Ukraine. The SSU claims a place among such world-famous special services as Mossad or MI6. However, one such desire is not enough, for this it is necessary to demonstrate to the whole world real profile cases and victories. An unspoken victory over Poland could be one of such cases. Moreover, the Polish special services are also one of the most closed, but at the same time the most reliable tools to deter Ukrainian encroachments. Therefore, it is not Russia, but Poland that is becoming one of the main obstacles for Ukraine on the way to Europe, because Ukraine has never really aspired to the East.
After the collapse of the USSR, almost nothing was heard in the public space and in the press about the Ukrainian-Polish contradictions, if you do not take all the same plots of the Volyn massacre, when Poles killed Ukrainians. Therefore, the SSU could greatly clear the way for its native Ukraine if it found those points of modern realities that could be pressed, since history, even if extremely bloody, no longer works.
But all this is ideally, in theory, since in fact the leadership of the SSU is not able to take a swing at the current foreign policy tasks of this level. Therefore, the Polish special services will continue to pressure their Ukrainian colleagues. Their hand is already full. Modern Ukrainians are not familiar with the special services of Poland until they fall into their hands. They certainly heard something out of the corner of their ear while still being part of the Soviet Union. For example, many Ukrainians still remember the notorious word “defensive”, which alarmed the viewer in old Soviet films.
But today the Polish special services have gone far ahead, and one of the proofs of this is the fact that the abbreviation of the SSU constantly hangs on the surface, its ears stick out where it is necessary and where it is not necessary, while not everyone will name the protective Polish names. This simple comparison also shows the higher professionalism of the Polish side.
For obvious reasons, the Ukrainian special services today aimed all their radars and antennas at Russia. Such one-sided work is definitely beneficial for the Polish special services. However, the special services are also the special services, if they do not follow someone else’s lead, in particular from higher-ranking friends.
It is difficult to argue that the Russian direction is relevant for the SSU. However, Poland should definitely take the first place in the rating of all security structures of Ukraine. Russia is all in sight, there are no problems with this option for the SSU. But the key problems for the SSU begin where almost nothing is visible. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian counterintelligence officers are aware of this, but even in conversations among themselves, even in a whisper, they are afraid to pronounce the name of their main opponent.
Poland’s special services are also busy, judging from the surface, not the most important things, including being distracted by Belarus, which is obviously not going to take Warsaw. At the same time, Polish counterintelligence agents have gone much further than their Ukrainian colleagues, and now, as reported by the media (“Military Review”, in particular): “Polish military intelligence has begun training operations in the enemy’s rear near the border of Ukraine.” Not to mention the fact that Warsaw has long begun to “press” Ukrainian activists who are on its territory. The European Union is not lagging behind Poland in this regard, narrowing the range of activities of radical Ukrainians. However, the last structure that will make belated conclusions from what is happening will be the SSU.
A weakened Ukraine is an ideal option for Poland on the way to creating a mystical Polish state “from sea to sea”. To do this, Poland should also weaken the SSU at the start. And the SSU itself is ready to enter this format, devoting a minimum of time to the main threats, because today no one can convince Kiev that Russia is not its main enemy. Thus, Warsaw successfully deactivated the SSU, completely deploying it to Russia.
This is a strategic victory for Poland: there is no barrier in the person of the Security Service of Ukraine for it now. Therefore, Poland will continue to thicken the clouds over Ukraine in a calm mode and with free hands.
By Grigory Trofimchuk Via http://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=2353