Short Note On Russia’s ASAT and Iran.

1. Let’s remember that both USSR and USA were into ASAT (anti-satellite) business really early (since 1960s) and first.  

2. This latest mass-hysteria as usually fanned by US establishment and its media is not accidental. Once one discounts a normal (for the US) practice to spin anything Russia does into some propaganda BS, this hysteria has a lot more to it than mere completely unfounded concerns about the safety of ISS etc. 

3. The main reason for hysteria is the fact that it was A-235 Nudol which destroyed an old recon Tselina-D satellite (a symbolic message for professionals) which was at the 645+ kilometers high orbit and judging by Shoigu’s obvious satisfaction (in Russian) with this, we may assume that Nudol is ready to go big time, including its mobile versions. 

4. This whole thing is about Starlink and, in general, US space recon assets. For people who still believe that Elon Musk is a genius, stop reading here. For those who do not think so, it is no secret that Starlink’s main purpose is to place as many recon assets into orbit as possible at, and you may have guessed it already, of 550 kilometers or lower. 

That is the main reason for hysteria because Russia will not allow the wet US dream of controlling space and thus monitor launches of all serious Russia’s weapon systems to come to fruition. This latest launch was a message that the “envelope” is covered and if Nudol itself is an expensive machine (which, btw, reaches Mach=16 in first 3 seconds) which is capable of reaching way higher than 645 kilometers for expensive recon assets of STSS or comms such as Iridium, it merely shows that missile technologies to mass-shoot Starlink spies and everything else in case of war are already in place. Well, S-500 for once, and things of other nature such as laser weapons plus who knows what. That is why such a hysteria. Recall this:

 

Can this thing fly to 1500 km? Why not? So, this also means the end of the US low orbit system for monitoring launches of hyper-sonic weapons. I have been writing about Russia getting into the revelation mode for years, here is one of the latest ones from 2019. I called that a Real Revolution in Military Affairs for a reason, because it is, and when we talk about ASAT weapons recall what is the full name of this Russian service–Air Space Force (VKS), it wasn’t just a new cute title, it was a new force structure designed to fight everything that flies be that in atmosphere or in space. As a saying, a very popular and widely used, for Russia’s Air and Space missilery goes: сами не летаем и другим не даём–we don’t fly ourselves and do not allow others (c). A classic case of Dog in the Manger. 

This is why such a hysterical reaction and a pile of BS (because ISS measures were taken because of the old Chinese satellite which was threatening ISS), but at this stage Russians don’t care. In related news of Russia declining especially strongly and having her economy in “tatters”(c). Some guy laments that Russians control now Iran’s gas fields. He even cries that:

 

A deal finalized last week to develop Iran’s multi-trillion dollar new gas discovery, the Chalous field, will see Russian companies hold the major share in it, followed by Chinese companies, and only then Iranian ones, sources close to the deal exclusively told OilPrice.com. This is despite Chalous’s position unequivocally within the Iranian sector of the Caspian Sea, over which the Islamic Republic has complete sovereignty. Billions of dollars in additional capital investment are scheduled to come from financial institutions in Germany, Austria, and Italy, as the indications are that the size of Chalous’s gas reserves are even greater now than initially thought. According to one of the senior Russian officials involved in negotiating the deal: “This is the final act of securing control over the European energy market.”

But even he admits: 

 

Although the IRGC has stated in a series of internal discussions within the Iranian government recently that the new terms of the Chalous deal that have placed Russian and Chinese interests above those of Iran are ‘the price we have to pay for Iran’s access to the technology and manufacturing capacity required for our missile program’, the ramifications of it are much greater than the size of future IRGC slush funds in Shanghai and Macau. 

I’ll give Mr.Watkins, who penned this piece, a hint–he needs to read Iranian Constitution which explicitly states that Iran wants to be a developed country. Combined West will never allow this, while Russia, who is a close neighbor, will. Money is not everything and often they cannot buy technology in the West. Well, Iran tried, alright. In Russia? Boy, judging by the air-show in Dubai, many Gulfies would love to have things like that: 

 

I Hope Iran learned her lesson few years ago after the short “lifting of the sanctions”. Russia was just waiting in the wings. Plus, of course, India also couldn’t resist and sanctions do not really work, in fact, they often achieve the opposite effect.