The Polish Prime Minister threw down the gauntlet to the EU in the open letter that he published to the bloc’s leaders on Monday. It came shortly after his country’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that EU law cannot be promulgated at the expense of national law. This in turn prompted groundless fearmongering that the Central & Eastern European (CEE) leader of the promising “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) intends to pull a so-called “Polexit”, which its ruling conservative-nationalist Law & Justice (PiS according to its Polish acronym) denies.
In his letter, Mateusz Morawiecki carefully explained that while Poland still respects the importance of EU law, it cannot be imposed on Member States in contravention of their domestic law. Should that happen, then the bloc risks creating a dangerous precedent that would lead to the erasure of state sovereignty and the accelerated creation of a centrally managed entity divorced from the democratic control of the same people that it purports to represent.
A day later on Tuesday, he accused the bloc of blackmail while arguing with its representatives at the European Parliament. Poland believes that the EU’s threat to withhold billions of euros’ worth of COVID-19 aid pending the country’s political capitulation to Brussels’ judicial demands is illegal and threatens to divide the bloc even more than it already is. This suggests that the EU has already gone so far with its anti-democratic and illegal centralizing tendencies that Poland has no choice but to make a final stand for the sake of its sovereignty.
The EU is reacting hysterically to Poland’s principled position. EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders told Axios that same day that this is the EU’s January 6th moment. Considering the mainstream narrative about that contentious event, this implies that Poland is behaving in a “seditious” and perhaps even “terroristic” manner. Such innuendo suggests that a political compromise is impossible between the disputing sides. It also hints that the EU is preparing to severely punish Poland in order to make an example out of it and deter others.
The impending political battle will be very dirty. The joint US-German Hybrid War on Poland will most likely intensify through more Color Revolution provocations, information warfare, and sanctions threats. In response, Poland will seek to assemble its regional ideological allies into a pro-reform bloc within the EU aimed at pushing back against this transnational entity’s anti-democratic and illegal actions. If the fellow conservative-nationalist government of the country’s top Hungarian ally falls after next spring’s elections, Poland will be isolated.
It would no longer be able to depend on Budapest to block the EU’s punitive measures that require consensus among its members. That would certainly escalate tensions between Warsaw and Brussels. The primary problem for Poland is that it doesn’t have any geopolitical or geo-economic pressure valves after burning all its bridges with Russia and increasingly behaving antagonistically towards China. This will place the country in an even more strategically disadvantageous position than before, further compounding its domestic challenges.
These aforesaid challenges will be externally exacerbated in an attempt to weaken support for PiS ahead of future elections. It should be remembered that the party barely won re-election last year so it’s definitely possible for the EU to successfully reshape Polish perceptions of the party to the point where it loses the next polls. In the context of Hybrid War theory, this means that they’re promoting a superficially “democratic” regime change through anti-democratic measures by meddling through economic means.
By throwing down the gauntlet to the EU, Poland is making a final stand for its fellow Member States’ sovereignty in the face of the bloc’s obsession with centralizing at their expense and subsequently institutionalizing a political hierarchy within it. The CEE leader’s efforts are noble but might ultimately not be enough to succeed. That wouldn’t be unprecedented though since Poland has a proud history of fighting impossible battles in order to make a final stand in support of its principles, which has left an enduring legacy.
By Andrew Korybko Via http://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=2274