Already now, the Iranians see that specific threats against their national interests are looming. Turkey’s desire to take all three countries of the region under its control is fraught with consequences for Iran. This is heavily disguised as different formulas for cooperation, but the Iranians understand how the situation will develop in the future. They, in turn, prepare for different scenarios. At the same time, Iran is interested in building good relations with all the countries of the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan and Georgia. But taking into account the fact that all these years Azerbaijan pursued a policy with a double bottom towards Iran, being under the undeniable influence of Israel, Turkey and Great Britain, it is strategically important for Iranians to have good and close relations with Armenia. And if Turkey, together with Azerbaijan, is already striving to break into the strategic spheres of the life of the Armenian state, then God himself ordered Iran not to lag behind, but to get ahead. Iran is the state that can change the alignment in the region. Armenia can play an important role in this.
The past eight years of the government of Hassan Rouhani have led to significant positional losses for Iran in the South Caucasus. The Iranians under the new President Ibrahim Raisi will certainly correct the situation.
And the Republic of Armenia is a state where there are no anti-Iranian sentiments, and they were not implanted there, as in the same Azerbaijan. If in Azerbaijan it was at the level of a somewhat veiled state policy, then in Armenia, with all the heads of state, relations with Iran were treated with care. Both pro-Western political forces and pro-Russian political forces in Armenia are more than positive towards Iran. Everyone in Armenia understands the strategic importance of friendly relations with Iran. In Azerbaijan, everything is exactly the opposite. Azerbaijan will never be allowed to get closer to Iran so that the Iranians can influence the country’s internal politics. The very nature of present-day Azerbaijan is exactly like that. In fact, this republic was created as an anti-Iranian project.
Therefore, in our opinion, it is this vital Iranian direction that Armenia will have to protect from any torpedoing. And this direction will certainly come under pressure, as one of the most important arteries supporting the statehood and sovereignty of Armenia. The collective West simply needs to create a monolithic anti-Iranian front in the South Caucasus. At the same time, it should be understood that Iran’s interest in the survival and strengthening of Armenia is conditioned by the issues of strategic security.
Continuing the topic regarding the strengthening of relations between Armenia and Iran, which we have already touched upon, it should be noted that Iran is interested in entering Georgia through Armenia. Nobody has yet canceled Iran’s interest in entering the Black Sea. And naturally, Iran will build this corridor through the territory of Armenia. And the point here is not only which route is cheaper to do this, but the fact that Iran is naturally interested in this route precisely through Armenia, since this is an alternative route.
The North-South railway through the Talysh region of Iran and Azerbaijan will have its own load. Some behind-the-scenes forces tried to torpedo this branch, which in every possible way prevent the rapprochement and increase in trade between Russia and Iran. In addition, the question arises, why go to Iran by making a detour through the entire border zone of Azerbaijan with Iran, through Armenia and Nakhichevan Julfa if the railway has already been stretched right to the Iranian Astara? Moreover, it is still unclear how and when the issue of the corridor through Armenia to Turkey will be resolved.
As for the exit through Armenia to Georgia, this is a different route, which does not depend on either Turkey or Azerbaijan. Strengthening ties with Iran in Georgia is also necessary in the future to create a balance of Turkish influence. The Iranian branch through Armenia and Georgia to the Black Sea and further to Europe can also become an alternative outlet to Russia, and in particular to the North Caucasus.
Armenia, in turn, is extremely interested in such regional structures when it becomes an alternative key country for Iran (and not only) to enter Europe and Russia. The route connecting the Black Sea with the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean will be of great importance for Iran, Armenia and Georgia.
Here the main problem of Armenia is its geographical position. Due to this, it does not have access to the sea, which greatly lowers both its status as a player and its trade and economic opportunities. Iran’s access to the Black Sea through Georgia will help increase Armenia’s trade turnover by diversifying its possible dependence on Turkish goods. Therefore, Armenia must have an appropriate infrastructure for the transit of goods.
By virtue of history and geography, Iran is currently surrounded by countries in which the British factor is strong – Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan. The previous Iranian administration actively flirted with the British, effectively undermining the line of conservatives and betraying the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, changing the country’s sovereignty in exchange for personal bonuses.
The issue of “burning out” the British line is a priority for the Iranian conservatives, for the new government. Due to the fact that Turkey has always acted as a battering ram of the British elites, pressure was exerted through it on Iranian interests in the region. In this case, I mean the “Great Turan” project, thanks to which not only Iran, but also Russia is marginalized as a regional player.
It should be noted that the weakening of British regional networks will occur primarily as a result of the breakdown of the Pan-Turkism structure directly on the territory of Iran and the punishment of all those people who directly worked for Britain within the Iranian system. This will lead to pressure from outside, including along ethnic lines, but it will be short-lived. The Iranian system of power, according to Iranian experts, needs a total cleaning and reboot, which, most likely, will happen under the new administration of Ibrahim Raisi.
The Caspian Sea also plays an important role for Iran, both in terms of security and economics – it is a direct sea connection, first of all, with Russia. That is why the five Caspian states signed the Convention on the Status of the Caspian in order to prevent external players from entering the water area. At a time when Ankara is actively promoting its interests to the East – to Central Asia, the issue of security is again actualizing.
Do not forget that Turkey is a NATO member and the appearance of any Turkish military units in the coastal regions of the Caspian Sea directly threatens the security of both Russia and Iran. At the moment, Turkey is trying to negotiate with Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan on the construction of a pipeline on the bottom of the Caspian Sea, which will be able to transit through Azerbaijan to Turkey, which adds Turkey’s status as an energy hub (Turkish Stream, TAP, TANAP).
With the same success, upon reaching an agreement, the Turkish side can raise the issue of protecting the field or directly guarding during the construction of the pipeline, or begin to conduct joint exercises with the Azerbaijani Ministry of Emergency Situations on the protection of the same oil platforms in the event of terrorist attacks, which implies the development of joint efforts …
For Iran, there is also a problem in the presence of the Israeli factor in neighboring countries or countries of the region. Moreover, the situation shows that the Israelis go hand in hand with the British. For example, Israel is actively purchased oil from the Kazakhs – up to 25% of total imports according to 2009 data (this figure continues to walk on Israeli materials and news) and is the fifth trading partner for Kazakhstan, trade between the countries is actively asking for. The relationship was not even complicated by the arms scandal, when a large substandard and defective weapon was sold to Kazakhstan.
Israel has special relations with Azerbaijan, neighboring across the Caspian Sea from Kazakhstan. In addition to 40% of imports of Azerbaijani oil, Israel is also actively selling its weapons to Baku, in particular, the same UAVs (around which a scandal also erupted, but it was not advertised in the Azerbaijani media). But Israel, first of all, relies on Azerbaijan, and openly speaking about it, as on an anti-Iranian platform. The same pan-Turkism as the anti-Russian and anti-Iranian project is absolutely in tune with the interests of Israel in this region. Moreover, Israel is strengthening its positions precisely in the countries of Turan – Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, which in the future can be a route for the Great Silk Road project. In Azerbaijan, at one time, Israel had a base of drones that collected information from Iranian territory.
Thus, Israel is trying to kill two birds with one stone – to ride a trade route, which in the long term can become very profitable, and invade the underbelly of Iran, weakening its position along the perimeter of the country.
The United States has always stood behind Israel’s back, ensuring its financial and military security. However, contradictions have recently arisen between the Jewish elites of the United States and Israel itself due to the difference in ideologies and visions of projects in the Middle East region. The split became apparent even during the time of US President Barack Obama, when theses about the closure of the Israel project began to slip in expert circles, as the liberal Jewish circles in the United States tried to attract Iran to themselves, destroying it from the inside. Protests in Iran in 2009 coincided with the election of Barack Obama to the presidency. From that moment, active propaganda of liberal values in Iran began, which ultimately led to the victory of the reformer Hassan Rouhani in 2013.
During the two presidential terms, the Iranian system and society have undergone significant changes, but the Iranian society has retained its faith in the ideals of the Islamic Revolution. What an irony! After the departure of the Democrats (liberals) from the leading positions, Republican Donald Trump came to power, who opposed the Iranian reformers. Now the situation has changed, conservatives are coming to power in Iran, and Democrats are again in power in the United States, who are still aiming at dismantling Israel.
The situation is such that the United States indirectly unties Iran’s hands on the Israeli issue. Moreover, Washington is already openly declaring that it will not help Israel in the event of a war. Without external support, the project (and this is precisely the project!) Of Israel will be closed, it is a matter of time.
Dismantling Israel does not mean physical destruction, but simply the disintegration of the state as a system, with all the ensuing consequences. However, the outflow of the population abroad is inevitable against the backdrop of a critical threat, when the state will not be able to perform a number of its functions.
Naturally, the question arises: where to move? Jewish elites have always existed in the mind of the network elites (diaspora), but people who today do not want to close the Israel project want to move it to another territory.
And there is such a territory. For some time now, “talking heads” – experts, analysts, and so on – began to actively develop and promote the idea of the ethnic closeness of the Azerbaijani and Jewish people through the nomadic Khazar-Turks who converted to Judaism (interestingly, at one time Israel also actively developed the idea of ethnic ties with the Chechens), they say, fraternal peoples bound by age-old traditions, Azerbaijanis and multiculturalism are identical, and so on against the background of promoting a positive image of Israel and its interests in the region. It should be recalled that those communities that include the descendants of the Cohens and Levites are considered to be real Jewish. They are not in Azerbaijan.
If you look at the alleged map of Khazaria, then the territory of Azerbaijan occupies only a small part, most of the kaganate covered the North Caucasus, the Volga region, Crimea, part of Ukraine, part of Kazakhstan. Why Azerbaijan?
Yes, because Azerbaijan is located at the crossroads of routes, is the key point of the North-South and Great Silk Road projects, has access to the Caspian Sea, borders Iran and Russia, has excellent climatic conditions and is the most powerful state in the South Caucasus region.
But even if the Khazaria project can work despite the opposition of Russia and Iran, then for a full-fledged resettlement, even within the framework of several waves, preconditions are necessary, including the desire of the majority of Azerbaijanis to participate in such a project. And this is impossible without creating instability and breaking down state structures on the territory of the country. To do this, in Azerbaijan, it will be necessary to create a situation close to defragmentation or federalization, and for this it is necessary to attract radical forces from outside.
Such a project is difficult from the point of view of implementation, but very effective from the point of view of the Jewish elites at the exit, which will allow them to control financial and trade flows in pleasant climatic conditions.
Taking into account all of the above and probing the sentiments of Iranian politicians and experts, we can conclude that under the new government Iran will restructure its policy in the region and the costs here fade into the background. It is about strategic security. And any connivance is fraught with even greater losses. It is necessary to restore the balance in the South Caucasus, and it is undeniable that it has been violated. Iran is simply forced to take a course towards strengthening its positions in Armenia and Georgia, as well as restoring positions in Azerbaijan and, most likely, will act as a destroyer of the Turkish-British-Israeli structure. And Russia, most likely, will support this policy of Iran in order to re-create the balance of power in the region, or simply will not interfere. Under the new president of Iran, a rapid rise in bilateral relations is expected.