When I write about US crisis I constantly stress that it is systemic and it is institutional. Very few American institutes are as tragicomical and popular as being butts of the jokes around the world than the so called America’s “Intelligence Community”. It’s failures to assess or to predict anything are so spectacular, that one must question a validity of their “analytical” methodology. To illustrate this, it is enough to take a look at a comment to a release in 2012 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Global Trends Projections 2030.
Report projects U.S. as “first among equals,” but the “unipolar moment” is over.
Well, here we are in the year of 2021, 9 years before the end date of these “projections”, and, boy, are we in for a surprise. I am not talking about “unipolar moment” which was over in 2007 after Putin’s Munich Speech and wiping the floor with the US client of post-Soviet country of Georgia in the five day war in 2008. That it was over was clear already then. No, I am talking the “first among equals”. There is a lot of wrong with statement, because seeing the size of America’s real economy today, and yes, I am talking about actual manufacturing, one is forced to concede that American economy is nowhere near the Chinese one and continues to deindustrialize at accelerated rate. Yes, my brand new refrigerator is made in Mexico, the new stove is made in China, and pretty much any consumer good sold today inside the US is NOT made in America. And these are consumer goods only, there are other goods and resources which have non-US origin and are critical for what remains of the US productive economy. Be that China’s rare earth elements, Russia’s titanium for US aerospace, or many other things and the list is long.
So, no, the US is not “first among equals” since China dwarfs the United States economically, while Russia neutralized most of US military capabilities by making systems which the United States simply can not and it is doubtful will be able to close ever-increasing military-technological gap with Russia both in enablers and weapons which shape modern geopolitics. No doubt, this year, yet another Captain Obvious “assessment”, on Threats to the US no less, has been produced with an “intelligence insight” of such a profundity that one really begins to scratch the head.
If this is the “level” of “intelligence” assessments, I need to call on Mr. Lavrov.
Of course, no one should expect any public domain assessments even from the top notch analytical orgs to be perfect. One will always find inconsistencies and, sometimes, obvious half-truths, but in the American case it is an absolutely defining feature of exposing oneself as simply ignorant on the culture and intentions of those who the United States counts as enemies. American enemies are those who are better at things America thinks they cannot be. Well, that’s exceptionalism for you. But the US National Intelligence Council, certainly, thinks that it is smarter than anybody else and does this:
Oh, boy, economics and technology are “identified” as “likely to shape the national security environment”. In related news, water is wet, wind blows and the sky is blue. But never mind, these two factors have been decisive factors in anything for much longer than the United States exists, good that somebody noticed now. I will omit here commenting on important but grossly de-scientified in the West issue of environmental change and, correctly assuming, the level of wokeness and social and cultural insanity affecting ALL US institutions today, I will leave this important issue outside of this discussion. For now. So, here is this latest Global Trends 2040. The opening salvo is devastating in one of the four scenarios of the future:
I believe this scenario was written by the same people who shot CIA recruitment videos and people who graduated “economics” programs in Ivy League schools and know Modern Monetary Theory. Of course, you will not find anywhere in this assessment how to reindustrialize the United States and concentrate resources on real innovations, other than discovering new genders and fields of “study” such as Queer studies or Constructing the Grievance Industry. Of course after this wowser they go for the favorite term in the US military-intelligence-media complex: disruptions and disruptors, meaning anything that “undermines international order”, that is disappearing US, primarily self-proclaimed, hegemony.
Actually, “Vulnerable developing countries” in Eurasia will be doing just fine and will feel very safe from being bombed by “democratic”, if not queer, stand-off weapons and have their regime changed. Being caught in the middle is not such a bad proposition after seeing how successful “democratization” by the US went in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places. But then they suddenly come to a sensible conclusion, surprise!
In related news, water is wet, the sky is blue…well, you know the routine. And then comes the BANG!
My beef here is not with BS written about Russia–by now, there are no real professional Russoists in US “intelligence community” (speaking Russian doesn’t make one a “specialist in Russia”) and one should expect such idiocy, plus always consider a severe butt-hurt factor when speaking about Russia to American exceptionalists–they are still pissed off with Russia defeating Hitler, flying first to space, having better education system, superior weapons and military history and now fast closing the gap in terms of living standard. No, you would expect that. My beef is with the bunch of morons who consider the UK a “major power”. Really? How, can anyone explain it to me? Country devoid of any serious natural resources, with economy consisting primarily of FIRE, with no independent aerospace industry capable out of own resources to produce a basic commercial let alone combat aircraft, having no space program, drowning in the cesspool of multiculturalism and insidious Islamization, having a PM who is a certified idiot and being on the verge of disintegration, with Scots having a different views on the UK altogether. And yes, UK has a lone operational destroyer and her two carriers deploy a terrifying weapon–F-35B which is a…well, flies not that well, to put it mildly.
But that doesn’t prevent this “Intelligence Council” from publishing an absolutely risible, and traditionally wrong, yet another pack of BS which is filled with catch phrases and buzzwords of increasingly detached from the reality and grossly ideological American discourse in any serious professional field ranging from politics to war, to intelligence or the so called “diplomacy”. If you wanted to see how decreasing intellect and professionalism manifest themselves in a society which does not produce anything but wet dreams–read this document. You cannot help them, that is how they were brought up–to be ignorant.