It was like watching a runaway train diving into the abyss from the track which abruptly ends over the precipice in slow motion. It was clear already around 2007-08 that the United States was on its way to lose yet another war.
Who would have thought that it will turn out this way, right? I am being facetious, of course. Anyone with IQ above room temperature knew already then that a major clusterfuck was emerging in Afghanistan. It matters, also, how you leave, in what manner. Russia’s 201 Military Base in Tajikistan is a serious military formation, which can call on whatever reinforcements it may need and I am sure Tajikistan will have little objections. In 2017 Russia already transferred to Tajik Army a substantial number of modern equipment.
And the very presence of a powerful Russian military formation is in itself a substantial morale-boosting factor for Tajikistan. Such as Russian gunnery exercises yesterday.
We may, of course, debate until hell freezes over, how bad is the situation for the United States which effectively run from Afghanistan which collapses as I type it and Kabul’s regime is counting last weeks, most likely, until it falls. Some people, like former Senator Ron Paul call it a new Saigon.
Maybe. It was the only modern American war I personally supported, until 2003 when it became clear that it was not about fighting Islamic terrorism, the United States so enthusiastically helped to grow into a global movement in 1970s and 80s. Well, you all know the circumstances. Until Afghanistan is broken into ethnic enclaves and majority of Pushtu are separated from others, which implies partition of that country, things will continue to deteriorate there. So, here we are, $2 trillion and thousands upon thousands of lives later, Afghanistan is to become a playground for the most radical forms of insanity. I am sure there will be, later, yet another iterations of “Dereliction of Duty 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0” written by some disgruntled American officer who would continue to believe that the war in Afghanistan, as well as in Vietnam and Iraq, “could have been won”, if only America would… stop being America and become something completely different in terms of how it fights wars and conducts her foreign policy. Sure, and I could fly if I would have been a Superman.
The damage to the America’s always PR-polished and exaggerated reputation is gigantic and we may yet fully grasp ramifications of this hasty (yes, let’s call it that) “retreat” from Afghanistan. Obviously, the school of thought that the United States wanted to set Afghanistan on fire to lure Russia into it, is wrong on many levels when states this because Russia is not Soviet Union and she is not getting back to Afghanistan, to start with. Today Russia has proxies–Tajiks, Uzbeks etc. Those peoples and their, however corrupt, governments do not want to be run by Taliban. So, let them fight if it comes down to it. But, I think, purely militarily Russia is in a good position to provide required assistance without getting involved by serious formations or serious expenditure of own resources. They already run to Moscow. Hm, and I thought they didn’t like Russians, wink, wink. Look how Emomali Rahmon loves Putin and recalls Soviet past and common Victory over Nazism on May 8th this year.
Of course, Vladimir Vladimirovich offered help to Tajikistan. But Russia of 2021 and Russia of 2001 are two completely different countries and Russians developed now a good practice of “what’s in it for me?” Many former Soviet republics suddenly found themselves in an uncharted territory of begging Russia for whatever they want or need. Hey, nothing personal, just business. After all, it is capitalism and market geopolitics. They don’t like Russia’s conditions they can go and ask the United States for…ah, wait, yes. So, you get the idea. Actually, same goes for Belarus or anyone else from the former USSR.
In other news, the Russian Navy Day is coming (the last weekend of July) and, what a show it will be–not only project 971 SSNs Vepr and modernized pr. 949AM Orel (with its monstrous salvo of 72 P-800 Oniks) will be in line for the main naval parade in Kronstadt–but, as TASS reports (in Russian), pr. 955A (Borey-A) SSBN Prince Vladimir will also be presented. That is a treat.