Can the US be deterred? (OPEN THREAD #5)

Amid fears of worsening clashes in eastern Ukraine, Russian and American diplomats have held unscheduled bilateral talks in an effort to forestall an all-out conflict, which Moscow has warned could spell disaster for the region“.

This begs the question: is the “Biden” administration still capable of logical thought?

My guess is that no, probably not.  Here is why:

  • Ever since Dubya, each US administration was lead by a clueless and weak President who might have been good at making speeches, but which had neither the intelligence, nor the will, nor the courage to lead the United States.
  • This phenomenon became particularly acute with Obama, who was a fantastically incompetent and weak leader and, as a result, the putatively single US foreign policy was replaced by many competing foreign policy: one Foggy Bottom foreign policy, another one by the Pentagon, yet another one by the CIA, etc. etc. etc.  As a result, the foreign policy of the US was decided like a mathematical sum vector (which often, did not match any of the competing agendas).
  • At the same time, the world watched in awe and horror how the quality of the US “diplomats” was in free fall.  For example, not since James Baker did the US have a competent Secretary or State.  The same can be said of the Pentagon or the CIA.  Remember Pompeo or Petraeus?
  • A wise saying states that if everybody is in charge, then nobody is.  If everybody is responsible, then nobody is.  For the USA, this means that while each agency or lobby pushes for its own interests, nobody is really in charge of protecting the people of the USA if the proverbial crapola hits the fan.
  • It would be a fair thing to say that while the competence of US diplomats went down, their arrogance sky-rocketed to levels of “chutzpah” never seen before.  What we know have is a quasi-perfect fusion of Anglo and Zionist messianism gone berserk (the LGBTQ+ freaks’ is another perfect example of this)
  • Weak administrations are also the perfect object of lobbying, hence the phenomenal rise of the influence of both the Zionist and Ukronazi lobbies in the United States.
  • Finally, US Americans in general, and US decision makers in particular, are phenomenally ignorant of history.  Combined that with their messianic narcissism and you get a most toxic combination of a total sense of impunity and an terminal inability to see even a major danger or threat.

Yet the Russians are still trying, if only because they, unlike their US colleagues, understand the nature of war.  Still, I am afraid that the conversation might looks something like this:

Russians: if you attack us, we will sink most of your navy, we will destroy your key command posts and we might even strike the continental USA with our conventional (non-nuclear armed) long range weapons.

US Americans: nah, there is noooooo way you can do that, you drink too much vodka and you are bluffing.  We are the most powerful military in the history of the galaxy – have you not read Tom Clancy?!

Russians: don’t you understand what the consequences of a major war in the Ukraine will be for the European continent and your NATO “allies”?!

US Americans: you are authoritarians, we are democrats and democracies always prevail against authoritarian regimes!

Russians: but, don’t you feel any pity for your European “allies”?!

US Americans: we can and will protect them, we are the most powerful military in the history of the galaxy!!

Russians: and how do you propose to protect anybody from our hypersonic weapons?

US Americans: We are the USA. Lower your defenses and surrender your forces. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile (yes, that is the mental level of these TV-educated ignoramuses).

etc, etc, etc.

The chances of this leading to a de-escalation are, frankly, infinitesimal.

What about the French and the Germans then?

Oh, I am pretty sure that they both “got it”.  These regimes are evil, but not stupid.  They are, however, totally under the thumb of Uncle Shmuel and most unlikely to openly defy him.  All they can do is beg, and that is unlikely to suade him.

Still, today, Foreign Minister Lavrov, during a press conference in India, said that Germany and France were doing noting useful and that they must urgently bring the Ukies “back to their senses”.  Will anybody heed this warning?

Russia is clearly trying very hard to show, by words and actions, that she will not back down.  And, for all their other and very real faults, I suspect that many (most) Ukronazi leaders do understand that if this comes to a “hot” war they personally are likely to die.  These are cowards and cowards always panic when they are personally threatened.  This, by the way, gives Russia another potentially interesting option:

Say the Poles move one or two battalions into the western Ukraine.  Rather than obliterating them, Russia could decide to “only” target their battalion HQs and commanders.  This way, i) innocent Poles would not have to die ii) the surviving Poles would be terrified and iii) Poland would have no means of retaliation whatsoever.  What about NATO?  I can tell you that NATO would protest but not move at all, just like the did with Saakashvili and Erdogan.  No NATO/EU country is willing to enter a war against Russia on behalf of the Poles in the Ukraine, not even they are that stupid.

Anyway, these are my thoughts today after listening to the latest news.

I turn this over to you – what do you think?

Kind regards

The Saker

Via http://thesaker.is/can-the-us-be-deterred-open-thread-5/