The Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics are again facing renewed Ukrainian aggression.
The regime of silence, which the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky was so proud of, existed exactly until the local elections ended in the country. Since then, tensions on the demarcation line have grown, and the rhetoric of Ukrainian officials has become increasingly harsh.
Ultimately, the National Security Council of Ukraine allowed the military to fire at peaceful settlements in the LPR and DPR, and the shelling became more frequent and intense. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continuously use heavy artillery, and the day before, a child died as a result of a dastardly attack.
It appears to strongly resemble the situation in South Ossetia, when Georgia attempted its hostile actions back in 2008.
The difference here is that, thanks to mass certification, hundreds of thousands of residents of the LPR and DPR have become full citizens of the Russian Federation. If Ukraine decides to go on the offensive, Russia will have an extremely justified reason to stop this act of aggression.
If this happens, and no help comes to Ukraine, it will be forced into accepting peace and likely rather quickly.
The Ukrainian expert community also agrees with this point of view. Mikhail Pogrebinsky, director of the Kiev Center for Political Research and Conflictology, claimed that the scenario of forcing Ukraine to peace was discussed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron
“If the idea belongs to Putin, then, I believe, he wanted to convey to Merkel and Macron clear and clearly formulated red lines and the likely consequences of what will happen if Ukraine crosses these lines,” the analyst explained.
However, the rhetoric of European leaders indicates that Berlin and Paris agree to such a scenario if Ukraine chooses to attempt to resolve the issue by force.
🇺🇦 Українські захисники доєднатися до флешмобу #What_is_Ukraine.
— BREAKHISTORY (@thebreakhistory) April 4, 2021
— Zona de Guerra-War Zone (@war_zoneII) April 4, 2021
— Videokings 📹 (@videokings_tv) April 4, 2021
Meanwhile, US outlet National Interest outlined the reasons why Ukraine would lose any war against Russia.
Russia has a clear superiority thanks to the S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems. Systems deployed in Crimea with a radius of 400 kilometers pose a serious threat to Ukrainian military facilities, and not only in Donbass.
The second point of the article are the Su-35S fighter jets with air-to-ground missiles and guided bombs. Ukraine’s obsolete aviation has no chance against this aircraft.
For confrontation on land, the Russian army has the BMP-3M. Lightweight and maneuverable vehicles that are perfect for military operations in the urban conditions of Donbass.
In a tank battle, the T-90M battle tank can make its contribution. At the same time, the American publication reminds that Russia is the world leader in terms of the number of tanks in service. And although the Ukrainian Armed Forces have at their disposal the T-84 “Oplot”, there are too few of them for a successful confrontation.
In conclusion, the National Interest pointed to the Russian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, capable of firing up to 8 rounds per minute.
Ukraine is likely feeling emboldened, after Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke with US President Joe Biden on the phone, and assistance against “Russian aggression” was promised.
But this does not mean that the Pentagon will send its own troops to help Ukraine, complains Mikhail Zabrodsky, Lieutenant General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“This does not mean that in the event of an open Russian invasion or an attempt to move deeper into Ukraine, tomorrow some US division will appear here and will fight for us,” he said.
The situation on the demarcation line in Eastern Ukraine is also worrisome, as the numbers of the Nazi-infested volunteer battalions are also increasing.
The number of volunteers wishing to defend Donbass has increased in recent days against the background of the aggravation of the situation in the region, said the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin.
He said that, however, there were supportive voices from Russian parliament, and that they pledged support and told them that they are not alone, which lifted people’s morale.
Still, the Security Council of the Russian Federation considers the possibility of clashes between the armed forces of Ukraine and Russia during the escalation of the conflict in Donbass as very likely.
Below are videos shared on social media showing the situation on both sides of the demarcation lines.
Vehículos de combate rusos aguardan en la frontera para realizar la primera incursión en cuanto reciban la orden y los mercados estén abiertos.
— ᒍOEᒪ 🐺#YoMeVacuno (@JoelHDYT) April 4, 2021
— ܡܐܪܝܘ 🇱🇧🇬🇧 (@MarioLeb79) April 4, 2021
- On April 4, the UAF attacked areas near Nikolaevka wounding one civilian
- 594 ceasefire violations, including 453 explosions were reported in Donetsk region, according to the OSCE
- 427 ceasefire violations, including 58 explosions were reported in Luhansk region, according to the OSCE
- On April 4, the UAF is concentrating military equipment in the village of Shchastya
- On April 4, artillery of the DPR forces targeted UAF positions near Pisky
- On April 4, artillery of the DPR forces targeted UAF positions near Vodyane
- On April 4, artillery of the DPR forces targeted UAF positions near Avdyivka
- On April 4, 1 Ukrainian serviceman was killed by a mine blast near Shumy