DYNAMICS OF CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

Bahawal Khan 

Global economic architecture is fundamentally weak and fragile and having multiple internal contradictions which emanate in different economic and financial crisis in different time periods, noted H.P Minsky. Similarly, Marx asserted, sustainability of existing hegemonic economic structure depends on continues revolutionizing and modernizing of means of production and more exploitation of labor. However, because of this process the absolute and relative surplus value is generated which creates wealth. Additionally, because of the destructive patterns of the global structure the wealth shifts in the few hands, which makes and favors the global elite and sends rest of the society in the swamp of hunger and poverty. 

 Moreover, because of this mechanism, phenomenon of industrial reserve army emerged which creates problem of permanent unemployment and cause reduction in demand and later manifest in the form  of crisis i.e. economic or financial crisis. Nevertheless, credit crisis of 1772 which was originated from London and quickly spread to rest of Europe. The great depression of 1929-1939 which is considered the worst economic and financial disaster of the 20th century begin with the wall street crash. OPEC oil price shock of 1973. The Asian crisis of 1997 which is also known as Asian flu which  began from Thailand and quickly spread to east Asia and its trading partner and the most recent 2008 financial crisis can be considered as dominant examples. Howbeit, this is the basic contradiction of the existing hegemonic economic structure  from where the crisis begins. In this context, Minsky highlighted that stability itself creates instability. Additionally, instability increases uncertainty and that uncertainty causes economic crisis. Though crisis hits different economies (developed and underdeveloped) differently, but it has also some universal impacts like reduction in growth, increase in unemployment, stock market crash, reduction in trade volume and currency crisis etc.  

 Withal, when economic crisis begins this sharpens contradictions among the capitalists. Consequently, these contradictions are converted into rivalry and manifested in different shapes  like price war etc. Furthermore, this scenario has much devastating effects where small, weak and newly established businesses cannot survive and the large businesses convert into monopolies and make strong cartels or syndicates for survival and cause more exploitation of both labor and consumers. Such process can also be analyzed through the different economic crunches; For instance, during the period of  financial crisis of 2008 small business went under or were forced to lay off employees, slash spending, halt expansion plans and find new ways to survive which results in the closure of about 1.8 million small businesses during the period of December 2008 to December 2010. Moreover, every year 670,000 business were created before the decade of financial crisis and this figure reached at 715,000 in 2006. But during the period of financial crisis the number felt dramatically and reached 560,000,  highlighted by Barbara Weltman in his report.

 It is of great importance to understand that due to the weak and fragile foundations, current economic structure cannot resist against any shock, these shocks might demand, supply or financial shock. Demand shock which can be seen after the tragedy of 9/11, supply shock which was caused by rising in oil prices in 1973 and financial shock which created the financial crisis of 2008. Besides, such shocks have more disastrous effects during the period of uncertainty and instability and result in the deep economic recession.

  However, same situation can be observed due to the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic. Covid-19 has come up with triple shocks demand, supply and financial shock simultaneously. Ironically, the fragile structure was already suffering from economic instability and shrinking the world economy. under the prevailing uncertainty the various international institutions and think tanks have already been reporting about the effects of uncertainty on the global economy. in the form of conflicts among great powers, trade wars etc.  For instance, before the Covid-19, world was facing growth uncertainty and there was tendency of reduction in the global output. This uncertainty created conflict among different powers where the Sino-US trade war is one of  the example of those conflicts. Further these conflicts negatively affected the world macro-economic indicators and shrank global growth and  trade volume. As warned by IMF “US-China trade war will cut the global growth slowest pace since 2008-2009 financial crisis”. Additionally, in November 2019 financial times highlighted that “because of trade tensions global trade balance shrank 1.2 percent”.  However, this indicates  that fragile hegemonic structure unable to tolerate triple economic shock (demand, supply and financial shock) caused by covid-19 and that might lead to recession. According to the world bank global economic prospect 2020  “The global economy will shrink 5.2% this year. That would represent deepest recession since second world war with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870.” in addition it has also been warned in the same report that  “Economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7% in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5% this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years. Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6%, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year.”

 Nonetheless, the existing hegemonic structure is not only fragile but also complex and standing on the foundation of exploitation of state and society at larger level. Therefore, any single factor cannot be considered as the main reason of the crisis. Rather multiple internal and external factors. However, the internal and hidden contradictions of global economic structure have been playing a significant role in global economic crunch. Additionally, these contradictions have made the recession destiny of the existing economic structure. Hence, whatever may be the situation, the recession is mandatory. This may start from any sector financial or real but it affects the whole economy and the external shocks fasten the  process which can be observed during covid-19.   As Michel Robert explained while discussing the Marxist theory of  crisis that “Crises of capitalist production are due ‘underconsumption’, a lack of spending by workers who do not have enough to spend or due to ‘disproportion’, the anarchy of capitalist production means that production in various sectors can get out of line with others and production can just outstrip demand; or it’s the lack of profitability in an economic system that depends on profit being made for private owners in order for investment and production to take place.”  Similarly, H.P Minsky argued in his financial instability hypothesis “financial crisis are endemic in capitalism because periods of economic prosperity encouraged borrower or lenders to be progressively reckless this excess optimism creates financial bubbles than busts”. 

It can be concluded that covid-19 has severely affected the complex socio-economic structure. Nevertheless, it is not the sole reason of current economic recession as it is being appeared in the contemporary data and literature produced by the world institutions and think tanks. These publications are neglecting the role of fragile structure and its foundations which are not in position to absorb any shock. Thus comprehending the genuine causes and factors influencing the crisis is necessary to develop appropriate mechanism to contain and address the various dynamics of the existing hegemonic structure. 

Via https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/dynamics-current-global-economic-crisis